Power Transitions and US-China Rivalry: Winning the Long Game

China’s rise as a global economic and political power in the post-Cold War era was always understood to be highly consequential but, until recently, there was little agreement on the likely evolution and impact of its emergence on the world stage. A fair number of American China-watchers bet on the increasing democratization and growth of civil society as a natural complement to privatization and liberal economic reforms in China and assumed that this guaranteed a peaceful and non-confrontational integration of China into the US-led post World War II international order. Others cautioned against such complacency and warned that a rise in capabilities would allow China to move beyond a tactical accommodation with the United States to a more self-confident pursuit of its ambitions for great power status and the restoration of its ‘rightful place’ of dominance in East Asia, if not globally.