This book assesses the condition of inter- and intra-state affairs of India and its neighbours in the post-Cold War period. This analysis is vested in the post- 1990s period because during that decade South Asia was overcome by ‘liberal internationalism’ that left the region largely peaceful. The early part of the new millennium saw the outbreak of ‘general turmoil in the neighborhood’. For instance, General Musharraf took over power in Pakistan in October 1999; the attacks of 9/11 led to the removal of the Taliban in Afghanistan and this had repercussions in Pakistan; there was an attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 and this led India to launch a ‘border response’ against Pakistan; Khaleda Zia was elected to power in Bangladesh in 2001 but she was unable to stabilize militant and terrorist groups in the country; Nepal was attacked by Maoist militants; in Sri Lanka the LTTE problem continues unabated; and in 2001 Bhutan debated for a new constitution and the king handed over power to elected representatives. These affairs have affected India and its foreign policy because India is an important axis in South Asia and its neighbours form the periphery.
This book is an endeavour, to assess the nature of divergences within India’s neighbours in a detailed yet precise manner, and in some cases understand the impact that this will have on India. Some countries that have been considered from this perspective are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Some themes that are revealed in this analysis are that the Taliban’s resurgence and reemergence since 2004, despite US plans for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, causes intra-sect violence in the country. This mobilizes Pakistan to work towards restoring the Taliban’s lost dominance and furthering an Islamic bloc in the region. This impedes Indian efforts to help with the reconstruction of Afghanistan in a democratic manner and facilitates Pakistan’s intentions of countering India’s rise through ‘proxy-war’. Dev Mukharji asserts that Bangladesh is being ‘pulled apart’ by inter-party politics, lapses in the judicial system, chaos created by Islamic militants, corruption in the Army and the role played by the ISI. In the midst of this, India would need to continue to sort out its relationship with Bangladesh. Bhutan’s turn towards democracy and the implementation of its new constitution could cast a shadow on the role of the ‘Indian Military Training Team in Bhutan’. India should determine how best to manage this before it becomes an irritant in India-Bhutan relations. Bhutan will seek to improve its relationship with China; however this will not impact the relationship between India and China.
Vinod Khanna explains that India and China’s relationship is of global and strategic importance. These countries should find a common cause in the international agenda to ‘reduce the threat potential between them and allow for agreements on peace and security’. Nuclear disarmament can be one such cause. According to Hamid Ansari, Iran has been pushed off the ‘international system’ due to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s post 9/11 approach to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Iran should create a foreign policy that is based on its ability to negotiate its way back to the international system, especially by utilizing the condition in Iraq to further its relationship with the US. Meanwhile Iran should also work on integrating the threads of diplomatic versus nationalist politics that dichotomizes its internal politics. Given the military’s political legitimacy and Aung San Suu Kyi’s political opposition in Myanmar, India must have a ‘look people’s policy’ rather than a ‘pro-democracy’ or ‘anti-military’ agenda.
The condition in Nepal between the Maoists and the Government affects the countries national security. India’s relationship with Nepal ‘goes beyond the diplomatic tract’ and so internal disturbances affect India’s relationship with Nepal even more so. India must continue to further its policy of ‘two-pillars’ in Nepal (whereby the monarchy of Nepal and multi-party systems can be preserved) while preserving democracy in the state. Satish Kumar and Amit Baruah state that the prospects of democracy are ‘dismal’ in Pakistan given the existing military leadership, the condition of the judiciary and the intra-state turmoil created by Islamic militants. This will obviously have to be revisited given the recent elections that have taken place in Pakistan. It is too soon to assess whether the stirring in Pakistan’s civil society for democracy will be upheld by affirmative constitutional and political action. The party structure in Sri Lanka which is very rigid and ‘used to be implacable’ seems to have vanished in current times. It can be alleged that politics (DMK) and the Vellar caste in Tamil Nadu affects the success of the LTTE in Sri Lanka.
These themes emphasize that India’s generous foreign policy approach towards its neighbours as demonstrated by the ‘Gujaral Doctrine’ will have to be revisited and reformulated keeping in mind the changes that have overcome peace in South Asia since the beginning of the new millennium. The analysis in this book presents a comprehensive platform for studies in this direction. However any such study will have to assess the combined effect of globalization on South Asia and inter-regional politics to get a clear view of its objectives. Such an analysis is not conducted here. Yet its data and perspectives make this book a comprehensive reference point for contemporary affairs in South Asia. The compilation of important foreign policy documents and bilateral treaties makes it an important source of primary research for scholars.
Amrita Venkatraman is Research Consultant, Delhi Policy Group, New Delhi.