Realistic Prognoses
B.G. Verghese
INDIA & PAKISTAN: PATHWAYS AHEAD by Amitabh Mattoo, Kapil Kak and Happymon Jacob K.W. Publishers, 2008, 306 pp., 840
February 2008, volume 32, No 2

J&K is very much the flavour of the day and there have been many publications on this theme in recent years. This compendium of 21 essays, put together by the Centre for Strategic and Regional Studies of Jammu University, constitutes a useful addition to this body of literature. Together with the Introduction and Conclusion the volume is divided into four sections: the Regional Dimension; Indo-Pakistan Relations, From the Past to the Present; Peace Building in J&K; and Indo-Pakistan Relations and The Way Forward. Amitabh Mattoo sets the framework of discourse as the interplay of three forces in the backdrop of Indo-Pakistan relations: the subedars who wish to take a hard line, the suadagars who favour a policy of benign neglect, and the sufis, who would proactively promote peace. Jasjit Singh argues that since hostilities are always a possibility, by weaponizing India and Pakistan have established (an uneasy) nuclear stability.

The limits to conventional war have been explored through Kargil type incursions and cross border terrorism. China too will need to adapt to a wider nuclear environment that includes India. He concludes that the sensible way forward therefore would be to heed the lessons of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty which aims to reduce offensive weapons’ capability through a negotiated agreement, leaving the ratio of forces essentially unaltered but at lower levels, and allowing for strategic defensive reserves to create a firebreak against nuclear escalation.

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